Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.017209 0.019471 0.021920 0.024769 0.027993 0.031529 0.035705
2025-09-28 0.013078 0.016066 0.019575 0.024005 0.029451 0.035935 0.044254
2025-10-05 0.011505 0.014953 0.019236 0.024953 0.032396 0.041772 0.054510
2025-10-12 0.010272 0.013980 0.018803 0.025543 0.034737 0.046870 0.064148
2025-10-19 0.009353 0.013249 0.018521 0.026187 0.037080 0.052046 0.074253
2025-10-26 0.008366 0.012280 0.017768 0.026037 0.038220 0.055575 0.082291
2025-11-02 0.007597 0.011519 0.017199 0.026041 0.039508 0.059336 0.090905
2025-11-09 0.006823 0.010661 0.016386 0.025569 0.039994 0.061889 0.097853
2025-11-16 0.006350 0.010205 0.016118 0.025876 0.041652 0.066295 0.107982
2025-11-23 0.005821 0.009605 0.015564 0.025661 0.042436 0.069356 0.116171
2025-11-30 0.005528 0.009355 0.015533 0.026273 0.044582 0.074734 0.128578
2025-12-07 0.004994 0.008654 0.014704 0.025473 0.044286 0.076031 0.134151
2025-12-14 0.004593 0.008152 0.014174 0.025155 0.044816 0.078813 0.142643
2025-12-21 0.004157 0.007549 0.013424 0.024386 0.044488 0.080082 0.148560
2025-12-28 0.004039 0.007503 0.013638 0.025350 0.047334 0.087179 0.165699
2026-01-04 0.003876 0.007356 0.013656 0.025948 0.049548 0.093289 0.181500
2026-01-11 0.003732 0.007234 0.013705 0.026603 0.051910 0.099847 0.198706
2026-01-18 0.003494 0.006911 0.013351 0.026450 0.052694 0.103451 0.210399
2026-01-25 0.003297 0.006648 0.013090 0.026454 0.053778 0.107704 0.223732
2026-02-01 0.003060 0.006288 0.012610 0.025976 0.053844 0.109931 0.233071
2026-02-08 0.002930 0.006133 0.012522 0.026287 0.055548 0.115586 0.250058
2026-02-15 0.002754 0.005869 0.012193 0.026069 0.056121 0.118943 0.262395
2026-02-22 0.002674 0.005799 0.012260 0.026690 0.058527 0.126326 0.284139